Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ms-17-347-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/ms-17-347-2026
Research article
 | 
26 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 26 Mar 2026

Time-dependent reliability analysis with series expansion and equivalent-plane approach

Qing Tu and Yu Wang

Cited articles

Andrieu-Renaud, C., Sudret, B., and Lemaire, M.: The PHI2 method: a way to compute time-variant reliability, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 84, 75–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2003.10.005, 2004. a, b
ASME: Manual for Determining the Remaining Strength of Corroded Pipelines, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York, NY, USA, standard, ISBN 9780791873847, 2023. a
Balesdent, M., Morio, J., and Marzat, J.: Kriging-based adaptive importance sampling algorithms for rare event estimation, Struct. Saf., 44, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.04.001, 2013. a
Baroth, J., Breysse, D., and Schoefs, F.: Construction reliability: Safety, Variability and Sustainability, Wiley-ISTE, ISBN 9781848212305, 2011. a
Bredow, R. and Kamiński, M.: Structural safety of the steel hall under dynamic excitation using the relative probabilistic entropy concept, Materials, 15, 3587, https://doi.org/10.3390/ma15103587, 2022. a
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Short summary
This paper proposes a fast way to estimate the probability that an engineering structure fails within a given time period when loads and properties vary with time. The method evaluates safety at a set of time points and combines these results to approximate the overall failure probability for the whole period. Tests on three examples show close agreement with large simulation studies while requiring far fewer model runs, which can support more efficient reliability assessment in practice.
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