Mechanical Sciences
Mechanical Sciences
Mechanical Sciences
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ms-17-347-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ms-17-347-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Research article
 | 
26 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 26 Mar 2026

Time-dependent reliability analysis with series expansion and equivalent-plane approach

Qing Tu and Yu Wang

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Short summary
This paper proposes a fast way to estimate the probability that an engineering structure fails within a given time period when loads and properties vary with time. The method evaluates safety at a set of time points and combines these results to approximate the overall failure probability for the whole period. Tests on three examples show close agreement with large simulation studies while requiring far fewer model runs, which can support more efficient reliability assessment in practice.
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